Perpustakaan Digital ITB

Indonesia's target of deploying 100 GW of solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity is one of the most ambitious energy programs in Southeast Asia, aimed at achieving rural energy independence and reducing reliance on fossil fuel imports. Yet while its technical feasibility has been widely studied, the broader macroeconomic consequences of this investment have not been systematically quantified. Existing evaluations focus on project-level viability and do not address how solar PV capital expenditure flows through the national supply chain, generating production, household income, and employment across connected sectors, or how much economic value leaks out of the economy through imported components. This research fills that gap by applying a Leontief demand-driven Input-Output (IO) model to Indonesia's 100 GW solar PV program, using the national IO Table 2020 from BPS (Statistics Indonesia). Because standard IO tables combine all electricity generation into a single sector, this study constructs a synthetic solar PV sector by disaggregating the project's capital expenditure (CAPEX) into twelve cost components and mapping each to its corresponding domestic IO sector. This approach isolates the economic multiplier effects of the solar PV investment and quantifies the import leakage caused by Indonesia's current dependence on foreignmanufactured solar modules and batteries. The model simulates four scenarios that vary two key policy dimensions, deployment scale and the Domestic Component Level (TKDN, a measure of locally sourced content). Scenario A follows the existing national electricity plan or Rencana Usaha Penyediaan Tenaga Listrik (RUPTL) at 24.6% TKDN. Scenario B models the full 100 GW deployment over ten years at the same baseline TKDN. Scenario C tests the same 100 GW target with an improved TKDN of approximately 51%. Scenario D models accelerated completion of 100 GW by 2029. The analysis covers the 2026–2034 period and focuses exclusively on the construction and manufacturing phases, where the largest front-loaded economic impacts occur. The results show that the output multiplier is approximately 2.20x across all scenarios, meaning every IDR 1 invested domestically generates IDR 2.20 in total national output. More importantly, doubling TKDN from 24.6% to approximately 51%, without increasing total investment, increases national output by 113.6% and household income and employment each by 137.4%. Under the highest-impact scenario (Scenario C), the programme generates IDR 2,581 trillion in additional output, IDR 411 trillion in household income, and approximately 5.82 million full-time equivalent jobs over the analysis period. Remaining on the RUPTL baseline instead of pursuing Scenario C represents an opportunity cost of IDR 2,214 trillion in output and 5.08 million jobs. These findings provide empirical justification for targeted domestic manufacturing incentives, particularly for solar modules, batteries, and inverters which together account for over 38% of total project CAPEX but currently contribute zero domestic economic activity. This study offers a replicable IO-based framework for other developing nations with archipelagic geographies seeking to align large-scale energy programs with measurable domestic economic returns. This study focuses exclusively on the generation-phase Capex structure of solar PV projects. Transmission grid expansion, which represents a separate and additional investment requirement, is outside the analytical boundary of this model.