Perpustakaan Digital ITB

Offshore exploration and production is a risky business even the field have strong probability of oil (proven reserve). The X field is a marginal field category with age more than 10 years. The field discovered by the X Company in year 1990 and abandoned by the X Company in year 2006. The proven remaining reserve is 2.16 million barrel. The X Company abandon the X field more related to the legal contract issue with the old FPSO owner. The Y Company eager to reactivated the X field. That's for the Y Company do the investment study with decision analysis method and sensitivity to know the economical of the field. In the economic modeling the field could be reactivated if the oil price at least above 40 US$ / barrel with the assumption of 3 (three) wells operated with its best capacity. With decision tree on the pessimist scenario have a negative result, but in order to get the positive result only required efficiency on the well activation and dry‐docking. Sensitivity result shown the main factor affected NPV of the X field are the crude oil price and FPSO rental. FPSO must fit to the specification and the price must economical to operate in the X field. One of the best choice to operate the old FPSO. Alliance with local government through BUMD is a one good strategy to minimize the political risk during the X field operation. The Y Company require a good project management during the five year effective operation.