Perpustakaan Digital ITB

This study presents a spatio-temporal assessment of seismic vulnerability in Bukittinggi City, a region of high seismic hazard, by analyzing the impact of land use change from 2015 to a projected 2027 scenario. Using a land use change model (MOLUSCE) and a multi-criteria vulnerability assessment grounded in the Indonesian National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB) framework, this research quantifies how historical and future urban expansion affects the city's risk profile. Vulnerability was calculated by integrating monetized values for physical and economic assets with population data. The findings reveal a clear and consistent upward trend in overall seismic vulnerability across the study period, directly correlated with the expansion of built-up areas. The analysis identifies two distinct risk typologies: the district of Guguk Panjang (GP) is the current epicenter of concentrated risk, characterized by high-density commercial and residential assets in hazard-prone zones. In contrast, Mandiangin Koto Selayan (MKS) is identified as the frontier of emerging risk, where projected urban growth is expected to significantly increase population and asset exposure. This differentiation provides a data-driven basis for tailored policy interventions: focusing on retrofitting and managing existing risk in GP, while implementing proactive, risk-sensitive land use planning to guide future development in MKS. The resulting vulnerability maps serve as a critical tool for local policymakers to enhance urban resilience.