Perpustakaan Digital ITB

Amidst the urgency of achieving the 2030 SDGs, Indonesia faces significant challenges, particularly in goals 13 (climate action) and 15 (life on land), where 53% of targets have stagnated or even regressed. This condition is reflected in the Mount Manglayang Area, a critical landscape confronting persistent pressures from deforestation, low diversification of competitive products, and land-use conflicts. Agroforestry offers an integrated solution—enhancing land productivity, carbon storage, and biodiversity—yet its study often remains focused at the plot scale, hindering the adoption of practices deemed sustainable. In the context of sustainability assessment, obstacles arise from the conceptual tension between the Weak and Strong Sustainability paradigms, as well as a methodological gap in managing complex agroforestry systems at a landscape scale. To bridge this gap, a Hybrid Sustainability framework and model were developed and integrated with the landscape agroforestry concept. Therefore, this research aims to evaluate the sustainability performance of various agroforestry systems, analyze the dynamics of landscape economic value for the 2018-2024 period and its projection for 2024-2030, formulate a spatial strategy for the area based on a landscape agroforestry system, and estimate the sustainability performance and economic value of the Mount Manglayang agroforestry landscape in 2030 based on the formulated strategy. This study employed a mixed-methods research design (quantitative and qualitative) using systematic sampling for 60 inventory and stand observation plots, alongside purposive sampling for interviews aided by questionnaires. Gaviglio et al.'s three-stage Framework was used as the basis for classifying agroforestry sustainability. The data collection phase integrated SAFA Guidelines to establish ecological, economic, and social parameters. In the data elaboration phase, Total Economic Value (TEV) was used as a reductionist approach through the economic valuation of each parameter. In the score analysis phase, classification was conducted based on descriptive statistics from a systematic literature review, with sustainability categorization referencing the SAFA Guidelines. Sustainability performance was analyzed descriptively and quantitatively, and further deepened using a Multinomial Logistic Regression (MLR) model to identify the key parameters most significantly influencing agroforestry's sustainability status. For spatial analysis, all parameters were interpolated (Kriging/IDW) to map the Landscape Economic Value (LEV), which was then overlaid with Land Cover/Land Use (LCLU) maps derived from On-Screen Digitizing (OSD) to analyze the dynamics of landscape economic value from 2018-2024. This dynamic became the basis for projecting the 2030 LCLU using a Cellular Automata-Markov model, resulting in a Business as Usual (BAU) scenario. As a counter-scenario, a Landscape Agroforestry Strategy (LAFS) was formulated through an integrated approach: at the macro-scale, AHP-TOPSIS and AHP-SWOT methods were used with 20 expert respondents to select and prioritize the most optimal agroforestry pattern-system alternatives. At the micro-scale, a heuristic prescriptive model was used to arrange plant composition. The selected strategy was then implemented to generate the 2030 LAFS scenario, ultimately enabling a quantitative comparison between the impacts of the BAU and LAFS scenarios on the landscape's economic value and sustainability performance. The results indicate that the overall sustainability performance of agroforestry in the Mount Manglayang landscape ranges from 26.67% to 66.67%, corresponding to a Less Sustainable – Ongoing Sustainable status. The hybrid sustainability model shows that the most significant parameters for ecological sustainability are CO2 sequestration, biodiversity, soil nutrient content, and erosion and land degradation. All economic and social parameters—land expectation value, mean annual income, and the presence of seedlings—were significant for their respective aspects. The landscape's sustainability performance in 2024 was dominated by the Moderately Tolerable class (47.00%), followed by Less Sustainable (20.60%) and Ongoing Sustainable (10.50%). The landscape's economic value in 2024 was dominated by the Rp162.50M - Rp423.17M class, covering 375.70 ha (47.00%), with the 2030 BAU scenario projecting a significant increase of 32.85% in the Rp0.00 - Rp162.50M class and an average decrease of 2.26% across the four upper classes. Multi-Role Landscape Agroforestry can be achieved by integrating the strong social capital of family labor to build strategic partnerships with the private sector, which simultaneously transforms the weakness of water scarcity into an investment opportunity, while also building collective resilience against pests and diseases through sustainable agroforestry design. This sustainable agroforestry landscape constitutes a spatial strategy comprising 260.22 ha of Alternative 2, 415.65 ha of Alternative 3, 3.58 ha of Alternative 5, 54.09 ha of Alternative 6, and 25.03 ha of Alternative 9. The formulated strategy successfully shifted the sustainability performance into the 53.33% - 93.33% range, or a Moderately Tolerable – Very Sustainable status, with the landscape now dominated by the Very Sustainable class (90.43%). The landscape's economic value in the 2030 LAFS scenario is dominated by the Rp423.17M - Rp944.50M class, covering 439.91 ha (55.00%), successfully increasing the value of the Rp944.50M - Rp1205.17M class by 289.29% and reducing the areas of the Rp162.50M - Rp423.17M and Rp0.00 - Rp162.50M classes by 97.63% and 6.23% respectively from 2024 levels.