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Ensuring cement sheath integrity is a critical challenge in the development of shale oil reservoirs, particularly during hydraulic fracturing operations that subject wellbores to high compressive stresses. This study presents a comprehensive risk-based evaluation of cement sheath integrity in horizontal wells within the Jimsar field, with a focus on the JM-X wells. The research integrates field data collection, finite element modeling, and sensitivity analysis to identify the primary factors influencing cement sheath failure. Results indicate that compressive stress, driven by the high-pressure environment of shale formations, is the dominant cause of failure, with cement type specifically ultimate strength emerging as the most significant variable. The study further demonstrates that API Type-H cement, when enhanced with appropriate additives, and a perforation design of 6 shots per foot (6 SPF) provide optimal resistance to operational stresses and minimize the risk of failure. Recommendations include the incorporation of flow dynamics, perforation penetration analysis, and temperature effects for future studies to further improve prediction accuracy and well integrity. The findings offer practical guidance for the design and operation of hydraulic fracturing in high-pressure shale environments, supporting safer and more efficient resource development.