Perpustakaan Digital ITB

Coal is one of the main energy sources used in Indonesia to fulfill domestic electricity supply. An optimal coal exploitation strategy is needed to meet domestic needs while meeting the demands of the coal export market. In fact, coal demand for domestic electricity supply has not been met or several periods of time. One of the identified causes is that there is a discrepancy between the domestic price of coal and the export price of coal. This analysis was conducted to identify the influence of external factors on determining the domestic price of coal in Indonesia and to estimate the domestic price of coal with the influence of these variables. The analytical method used is he system dynamics method using Vensim software. The system dynamics method is used to determine the complex relationship between supply and demand conditions for coal, as well as economic growth factors on determining the domestic price of coal. Furthermore, causal loop diagrams and system /flow diagrams will be obtained to form an equation of domestic coal prices based on predetermined factor variables. The data that will be utilized in this model are coal price, economic growth which is represented by GDP growth in Indonesia, and historical DMO achievement data. The initial hypothesis states that coal supply-demand factors, coal prices, and economic growth have an effect on determining the domestic coal prices with varying levels of significance according to the historical data.