Perpustakaan Digital ITB

It is important for regional spatial planning to align with national climate commitments. This is especially important for Indonesia, which targets Net-Zero Emissions by 2060 and a Forestry and Other Land Use (FOLU) Net Sink by 2030, since the success of this strategy depends greatly on local-level mitigation. However, it is difficult for local planning agencies to learn the long-term carbon impacts of their decisions due to the conflict between national climate ambitions and the reality of regional economic development that drives deforestation. A modeling system is proposed to analyze historical geospatial data, process satellite imagery to classify land cover, and compare historical driving factors with future change projections. Our model projects land use change in the Pekanbaru-Kampar region using the MOLUSCE model and measures its carbon impact with the InVEST model. When the system identifies future carbon emissions from land use change, it presents quantitative data on the "business-as-usual" scenario. The analysis reveals significant historical land cover change (2014-2019), with the region losing 11,384.54 hectares of forest, primarily converted to agriculture and infrastructure. Key driving factors identified include proximity to roads, built-up areas, slope, and critically, population density. Under a "business-as-usual" scenario, forest cover is projected to further decline to just 17.88% of the landscape by 2034, from 22.54%. This historical land use change resulted in 2.27 million tons of carbon emissions, with an additional projected loss of 1.8 million tons by 2034. Results of the research have potential applications in creating carbon-informed spatial plans.