Perpustakaan Digital ITB

Over the past few decades, national production has plummeted by approximately 270,000 BOPD (barrels of oil per day). The revitalization of idle wells to optimize production has become a national priority in 2026. Multi-Stage Fracturing (MSF) has emerged as a realized solution to extract hydrocarbons that cannot be reached using conventional methods (unconventional). This study evaluates the application of Multi-Stage Fracturing (MSF) in a tight oil reservoir and also develops a proxy function model aimed for predicting cumulative oil production. A single-variable sensitivity analysis was also conducted for each variation of fracturing stages (20 stages, 10 stages, 5 stages). The results show that 10 fracturing stages is the most optimum outcome with a production of 248.046 MSTB and a Net Present Value (NPV) of 10,456,890.49 USD. From the multi-variable sensitivity analysis, fracture permeability was found to be the most influential parameter compared to the other parameters, as evaluated by the Morris and Sobol method. The development of the proxy function model using Polynomial Regression and Response Surface Methodology (RSM) demonstrates excellent accuracy (R-square= 0.985, R-verification= 0.980, error= 5.93%) when compared to the model simulation results. These findings provide confidence that accurate production predictions can be performed for Multi-Stage Fracturing (MSF) cases in a tight oil reservoir with the same value of parameters.