Perpustakaan Digital ITB

Conventional decoupled reservoir modeling systematically underestimates asset potential by neglecting critical feedback mechanisms between subsurface and surface components, leading to suboptimal field development strategies. This study presents a novel Integrated Asset Modeling (IAM) framework that dynamically couples highfidelity reservoir simulation with surface production network constraints while explicitly incorporating an autonomous subsea choke control mechanism to capture emergent system behaviors. Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) enables computationally efficient uncertainty quantification across many operational control scenarios, maintaining statistical robustness within practical computational constraints. Probabilistic forecasting demonstrates that intelligent choke management alone enhances recovery factor by 2.7%, validating the economic significance of integrated optimization over traditional sequential workflows. A subsequent global sensitivity analysis deconstructed this variance, identifying four of the ten production wells as the dominant control levers that collectively govern over 70% of the system’s variability. Targeted optimization of these high-leverage control parameters yields 43 MMSTB incremental recovery beyond the 337 MMSTB deterministic baseline—a 12.8% uplift representing $2.15 billion additional value at $50/bbl. The probabilistic IAM framework quantifies previously unrecognized value creation opportunities in complex subsea architectures by capturing nonlinear system interactions and operational feedback loops that conventional decoupled approaches inherently cannot resolve. This rigorously validated methodology empowers operators with decisionsupport tools for designing adaptive automation strategies, optimizing capital allocation, and executing risk-informed asset lifecycle management. The integrated approach directly addresses the industry's dual imperative of maximizing hydrocarbon recovery while ensuring economic resilience in capital-intensive subsea developments facing volatile market conditions.