PREDICTION OF COAL CONTRIBUTION IN INDONESIA'S 2030 ENERGY MIX USING ECONOMETRICS AND LINEAR PROGRAMMING
As developing countries. Indonesia suffers major issues in energy sector. The main problems are the national dependence on petroleum, unbalance utilization between renewable energy and its resources, inefficient energy usage and limited energy infrastructure. From 2000 to 2011, Indonesia's primary energy supply grows 4% per year; meanwhile final energy consumption grows 4.7% per year (ESDM, 2012). The Government of Indonesia is fully aware of the complexity of the situation and need a comprehensive national energy management in accordance with the National Energy Policy in Presidential Regulation No. 5 in 2006 called National Energy Mix 2025. With the changes that have occurred to date, ii is necessary to forecast the level of national energy needs in 2030 and to estimate the contribution of coal as the dominant primary energy source. In this research, econometric model was used based on historical energy consumption and fuel price that considered as main variable in the equation. Variables were choose based on underlying economic theory and also its significant contribution to the total energy consumption within its sector. Five primary sector were selected, i. e: Industrial, Household, Transportation, Commercial and Others sector. Energy consumption in each sector is then estimated and presented as a total energy consumption. As for the fulfillment of the primary energy mix, linear programming was used. The results obtained from the model simulation shows that by 2030, energy demand will he dominated hy transportation sector that reached 948. 75 million BOE, followed by industrial sector of around 802. 19 million BOE, household sector of around 334.32 million BOE, commercial sector reached 97.31 million BOE and others sectors amounted to 19.57 million BOE. Using PLN master plan projection for electricity supply, total primary energy mix.for year 2030 can be established. Coal has an important role on this energy mix; by 2030 its proportion will reach ± 32% from total energy consumption. It shows that coal will be one of the dominant source of energy in Indonesia.