Perpustakaan Digital ITB

Autonomous vehicles (AVs) are expected to act as an economically-disruptive transportation technology ofering several benefts to the society and causing signifcant changes in travel behavior and network performance. However, one of the critical issues that policymakers are facing is the absence of a sound estimation of their market penetration. This study is an efort to quantify the efect of diferent drivers on the adoption timing of AVs. To this end, we develop an innovation difusion model in which individuals’ propensities to adopt a new technology such as AVs takes infuence from a desire to innovate and a need to imitate the rest of the society. It also captures various sources of inter-personal heterogeneity. We found that conditional on our assumptions regarding the changes in market price of AVs over time, their market penetration in our study region (Chicago metropolitan area) will eventually reach 71.3%. Further, model estimation results show that a wide range of socio-demographic factors, travel pattern indicators, technology awareness, and perceptions of AVs are infuential in people’s AV adoption timing decision. For instance, frequent long-distance travelers are found to make the adoption decision more innovatively while those who have experienced an accident in their lifetime are found to be more infuenced by word of mouth