2019 EJRNL PP RAMIN SHABANPOUR 1
Terbatas Yanti Sri Rahayu, S.Sos
» ITB
Terbatas Yanti Sri Rahayu, S.Sos
» ITB
Autonomous vehicles (AVs) are expected to act as an economically-disruptive transportation technology ofering several benefts to the society and causing signifcant changes in
travel behavior and network performance. However, one of the critical issues that policymakers are facing is the absence of a sound estimation of their market penetration. This
study is an efort to quantify the efect of diferent drivers on the adoption timing of AVs.
To this end, we develop an innovation difusion model in which individuals’ propensities
to adopt a new technology such as AVs takes infuence from a desire to innovate and a
need to imitate the rest of the society. It also captures various sources of inter-personal heterogeneity. We found that conditional on our assumptions regarding the changes in market
price of AVs over time, their market penetration in our study region (Chicago metropolitan
area) will eventually reach 71.3%. Further, model estimation results show that a wide range
of socio-demographic factors, travel pattern indicators, technology awareness, and perceptions of AVs are infuential in people’s AV adoption timing decision. For instance, frequent
long-distance travelers are found to make the adoption decision more innovatively while
those who have experienced an accident in their lifetime are found to be more infuenced
by word of mouth