Perpustakaan Digital ITB

PT PLN (Persero) has a problem with source of funding. The company has to use the fund for investment such as generator, transmission and distribution fields. There are two sources of funding, internal and external sources of funding. Internal source of fund comes from tariff payment from customer and external sources of fund come from subsidies loan agreement, government budget expenditure, issuing local bond, global bond and from bank loan. The company may not able to fulfill the needs of investment if only depend on internal source of fund, so they have to take external source of fund. The external source of fund from subsidies and government budget expenditure are not enough so they have to take another external source of fund, in this case external source of fund are between issuing global bond and bank loan. Because PT PLN (Persero) doesn't have any specific analysis about decision making of appropriate external source of funding between global bond and bank loan, this thesis will give problem solving for this company. The method is using Monte Carlo simulation because this simulation has more accurately resulted than other method and for helping this simulation, the tool used is Crystal Ball software. The first step determines the risk which is related to the global bond rate and interest rate. There are inflation, exchange rate, oil price and economic growth risks. There will be explained about each correlation of variables. The next is determining the methodology. Methodology related to those variables is Multiple Regression Analysis. From this methodology, the results will show the trend of global bond fixed coupon rate and interest rate prediction. After that, the decision making will be made from risk analysis of the global bond rate and interest rate prediction.