Perpustakaan Digital ITB

Oil and gas continue to be a rare commodity that people need and finding new reserves that are suitable and ready for development are more difficult than ever before. Companies may resort to an already discovered prospect that are yet to be developed for long because of the poor quality it has (low reserves, low permeability, etc.). This type of prospect is called marginal field. Companies are faced with an incredible risk of failure when taking such project and may end on a loss when investing. However, technological advances or an economic condition change can make this marginal field into a profitable project. To achieve the success of the project, professionals are needed to calculate the risk and measure the profitability before companies start investing. This study was conducted to determine the feasibilities of a gas project using expected monetary value (EMV). To minimize the risk taken for this project, EMV are used to quantify the economic risk for the project. In this case study, there are 4 gas prospect that have low reserves that needs economic study before development. The research study begins with a simulation of reservoir production. EMV are then obtained by calculating the project net present value (NPV) and then considering the probability of success of the project. The probability of success comes from the analysis that is carried out in the field. EMV value are used to determine the feasibility of this project as well the most optimal and best possible project decision for this case study.