Perpustakaan Digital ITB

This final project covers and defines a concept of risk analysis in conjunction with reducing or eliminating production losses related to the stoppage or delay due to inability of delivery in a timely manner part or all of activities listed in critical path at either development, construction or production stages, due to equipments and other logistics issues, man power, security or politics issues, metal price, ore grade, rock competence, rock stability, technical, designs, and other geological or geotechnical issues. This paper covers the concept of risk mitigation cycle as a loop of risk identification, risk measure, risk mitigation and risk monitoring and evaluation. In the risk identification, some of factors such as external unpredictable, external predictable, internal non-technical, technical and legal will be covered properly, while system standard, insurance and planning alternative of risk mitigation won’t be covered in this project. Another result obtained from this thesis is that a simple benefit to cost (B/C) Ratio analysis method, investing money in to the mitigated risks will obviously ensure that the uncertainty in the long term production planning is reduced, meaning that production level will be achieved as promised and that profit is maximized. Revenue or income is used as a basic calculation for B/C Ratio. Developing an understanding of the uncertainty inherent in the external and future environments and testing the robustness of any strategic plans against a set of possible futures, is a critical component of long-term and strategic planning. In the evaluation of Grasberg Block Cave (GBC) Projects, a view has been taken of the future and associated parameters that will influence investment decisions. This final project correctly focuses on ways to mitigate risks associated with both 'local assumptions' (being project specific technical uncertainties), it is imperative that decision makers are aware of, and understand the significance of global assumptions.