Perpustakaan Digital ITB

This study aims to estimate regional air travel demand in North Sumatra Province by utilizing variations of the gravity model. The objectives include identifying key factors influencing air travel demand, estimating demand through different model formulations, and evaluating the adequacy of airport infrastructure and coverage to support regional connectivity. Three models were developed, progressively incorporating economic indicators such as GDP per capita, population, distance, and additional socio-economic factors like leisure attractions, hotel accommodations, university, and health facilities. The methodology involved log-linear transformations to linearize the gravity equations, followed by regression analysis for parameter estimation. The models captured distinct aspects of air travel dynamics, with Model 1 focusing primarily on core variables (GDP, population, and distance), while Models 2 and 3 included direct distance impacts and more comprehensive socio-economic variables, respectively. Results indicated significant variability in air travel demand across regencies. Proximity and economic activity were key drivers, but the inclusion of socio-economic factors in Model 3 provided a more nuanced view of air demand, highlighting the influence of regional attractions and infrastructure. The analysis also revealed disparities in airport coverage, with some regions having high demand but insufficient access to airports, underscoring the need for targeted infrastructure improvements. This research contributes to understanding the drivers of air travel demand in developing regions and offers insights into improving regional connectivity through strategic investments in airport and transport infrastructure.