16 Chapter III Research Methodology III.1. Research Design Given the dynamic of the industry, especially with the rise of Ed-tech solution and shift in consumer behavior post-pandemic, a scenario planning approach has been chosen to analyze the potential future the industry might face. This study uses a mix of qualitative and quantitative approach, and will construct a set of plausible scenarios that may unfold in the next five to ten years. The strategy applies a combination of literature review, expert interviews, and rating approach to delve deep into the current state and also the possible future trend of the industry. The literature review will support the theoretical foundation, while the expert interviews and rating approach will help identify key drivers and critical uncertainties. This information will then be used to develop the scenarios. The scenario development process will follow the structure as written by Garvin & Levesque (2006), which includes five stages: orientation, exploration, scenario creation, option consideration, and integration. • Orientation: Define the focal issue, which in this case is the uncertainty of the future of non-formal foreign language education industry in Jabodetabek. • Exploration: Identify and analyze the driving forces and critical uncertainty factors that could shape the industry. • Scenario Creation: Develop a set of divergent yet plausible scenarios based on the factors. • Option Consideration: Assess the implication of each scenario for businesses and identify strategic options. • Integration: Identify the early warning signals and synthesize the findings into actionable recommendations for industry stakeholders. The unit of analysis in this research will be the non-formal foreign language education institutions in Jabodetabek area. This includes language schools, private tutoring services, and Ed-tech companies. Time horizon for this scenario planning exercise is within the next 5-10 years. This period is 17 chosen to capture the medium to long term impact of the current trend and uncertainties. The research design used in this study is shown in Figure III.1. Figure III.1. Research Design III.2. Data Collection Methods Semi-structured interview and rating approach are chosen to be used in this research to collect primary data and insights from industry experts, practitioners, and regulators. According to Creswell & Creswell (2018), qualitative research relies on many data sources to provide a thorough grasp of the topic discussed. Semi-structured interviews were chosen because they combine structured instruction and freedom. This strategy is effective to gather diverse viewpoints from industry practitioners and actors who have unique experiences and insights. Furthermore, the rating technique was used to allow for a systematic assessment of the most critical uncertainties affecting the industry's future. Creswell & Creswell (2018) also highlight that qualitative research should include deliberate sampling, with participants chosen based on their 18 knowledge and relevance to the issue. In keeping with this, respondents were thoughtfully selected to represent a varied variety of industry’s actor and stakeholders within the industry (see Table III.1 for this study’s target respondent list). By combining qualitative approach and rating method, this research provides both depth and rigor when identifying critical uncertainties and trends that will impact the sector in the next years. To improve the validity and reliability of the obtained data, this study uses data triangulation, which utilizes various sources of data to ensure a thorough grasp of the research discussion. In qualitative research, triangulation is an approach that cross-verifies result by combining several data sources, methodologies, or viewpoints in order to decrease biases and increase credibility (Patton, 1999). According to Guion, et al. (2011), this research uses methodological triangulation, which utilizes both qualitative and quantitative methodologies to analyze. The semi-structured interviews gave detailed qualitative insight from important players in the industry, whilst the rating technique assisted in quantifying key driving factors to determine the uncertainty factors. The triangulation is used to guarantee a more thorough, accurate, and fair knowledge. This study applies open-ended questions to be asked during the interview, as it can give respondents a certain level of freedom to express their views and concerns. However, to ensure that the interviews and discussion stay within the scope of the research, the questions are carefully written in order to explore factors impacting the non-formal foreign language education landscape in Indonesia, especially in the Jabodetabek area.