EXPLORING RISK FACTORS OF THE DEPENDENCY ON IMPORT SUPPLY RAW MATERIAL MEDICINE: A DELPHI - AHP APPROACH AND SYSTEM MODELING IN INDONESIA PHARMACEUTICAL SUPPLY CHAIN THESIS In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Management from Institut Teknologi Bandung By GIDION KRISNADI YOSEPH Student ID: 29023011 (Master Program of Science in Management) INSTITUT TEKNOLOGI BANDUNG December 2024 Koleksi digital milik UPT Perpustakaan ITB untuk keperluan pendidikan dan penelitian i ABSTRACT EXPLORING RISK FACTORS OF THE DEPENDENCY ON IMPORT SUPPLY RAW MATERIAL MEDICINE: A DELPHI - AHP APPROACH AND SYSTEM MODELING IN INDONESIA PHARMACEUTICAL SUPPLY CHAIN By Gidion Krisnadi Yoseph 29023011 (Master Program of Science in Management) The pharmaceutical sector in Indonesia exhibits a pronounced dependence on China for its procurement of raw materials, with approximately 95% of these materials being imported. Such a dependence engenders a detrimental scenario, as any disruption in the supply of raw materials from China could have profound repercussions for Indonesia's pharmaceutical industry. Considering the critical necessity to maintain an uninterrupted supply of raw materials, Pharmaceutical Supply Chains (PSCs) encounter a myriad of risks attributable to their intricate frameworks. The existing body of literature is inadequately comprehensive concerning risk assessment within the pharmaceutical sector, particularly in developing nations such as Indonesia. This research endeavors to identify and evaluate these risks while proposing a decision analysis model that integrates the Delphi method with the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and System Modeling within the framework of Indonesia's PSCs. The Delphi technique will be utilized to scrutinize qualitative data obtained from expert interviews and literature reviews. The AHP will facilitate the risk assessment and prioritization of various risk factors. System modeling, through the application of causal loop diagrams, will serve to elucidate the interconnections among factors and pinpoint necessary interventions. Data will be gathered from a diverse array of stakeholders involved in the management of PSCs in Indonesia, including manufacturers, distributors, and policymakers. It is anticipated that the study will identify and scrutinize risks within Indonesia’s PSCs, thereby equipping stakeholders to undertake proactive measures in addressing risk factors. Keywords: supply chain risk, pharmaceutical industry, raw materials, delphi method, analytical hierarchy process (AHP), system modeling Koleksi digital milik UPT Perpustakaan ITB untuk keperluan pendidikan dan penelitian ii ABSTRAK EKSPLORASI FAKTOR RISIKO PADA KETERGANTUNGAN IMPORT UNTUK PASOKAN BAHAN BAKU OBAT: SEBUAH PENDEKATAN DELPHI -AHP DAN SISTEM PEMODELAN PADA RANTAI PASOK FARMASI DI INDONESIA Oleh Gidion Krisnadi Yoseph 29023011 (Program Studi Magister Sains Manajemen) Sektor farmasi Indonesia sangat bergantung pada China untuk pasokan bahan baku obat, dimana sektor ini mengimpor sekitar 95% bahan baku. Ketergantungan ini menciptakan situasi yang tidak menguntungkan karena dapat mengganggu sektor industri farmasi di Indonesia jika China berhenti memasok bahan baku obat ke Indonesia. Mempertimbangkan keberlangsungan pasokan bahan baku obat semakin penting dalam industri farmasi, Rantai Pasok Farmasi (Pharmaceutical Supply Chains - PSCs) menghadapi berbagai risiko karena strukturnya yang kompleks. Studi literatur yang ada saat ini belum cukup komprehensif dalam hal penilaian faktor risiko di industri farmasi, terutama di negara-negara berkembang seperti Indonesia. Studi ini bertujuan untuk mengidentifikasi dan menilai risiko serta mengusulkan model analisis keputusan berdasarkan kombinasi pendekatan Delphi-Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) dan Pemodelan Sistem dalam konteks PSCs Indonesia. Metode Delphi akan digunakan untuk memeriksa data kualitatif dari kompilasi hasil wawancara pakar dan studi literatur. AHP akan berkontribusi pada analisis risiko dan proses prioritas faktor risiko. Pemodelan sistem dengan menggunakan causal loop diagram akan digunakan untuk mengetahui hubungan keterkaitan antar faktor dan mengidentifikasi intervensi yang diperlukan. Data akan dikumpulkan dari berbagai pemangku kepentingan dalam manajemen PSCs di Indonesia, termasuk manufaktur, distributor, dan pembuat kebijakan. Studi ini diharapkan dapat mengidentifikasi dan mengevaluasi risiko PSC Indonesia, untuk membantu pemangku kepentingan dalam mengambil langkah-langkah proaktif untuk mengatasi faktor risiko.