i SCENARIO PLANNING FOR NEW BUSINESS OPPORTUNITY AT PT. GROWTH INVESTMENT FINAL PROJECT In partial fulfilment of the requirements for the master’s degree from Institut Teknologi Bandung By ANTONY Student ID: 29323080 (Master of Business Administration Program) INSTITUT TEKNOLOGI BANDUNG February 2025 i ABSTRACT SCENARIO PLANNING FOR NEW BUSINESS OPPORTUNITY AT PT. GROWTH INVESTMENT By Antony Student ID: 29323080 (Master of Business Administration Program) This research explores the application of scenario planning as a strategic tool to face the uncertainties and needs of PT. Growth Investment in the capital market business. Based on qualitative methodologies, the research combines primary data from stakeholder interviews with secondary sources, providing a comprehensive perspective on the external and internal factors influencing the company’s business environment. PESTEL, SWOT, and Porter's Five Forces analytical frameworks were used to identify the key forces for change, including technological innovations, regulatory changes, and market growth trends. In order to illustrate potential futures at various stages of technological progress and market expansion, it creates four scenarios: The Mighty Eagle, The Wise Owl, The Persistent Horse, and The Slow Snail. Through the framework of each scenario, specific strategy that affect PT. Growth Investment's competitiveness and agility, such as technological investments, market diversification, and operational optimization are examined. Additionally, this study offers a thorough early warning system to track important metrics and facilitate flexible decision- making. These findings show the importance of future strategic to face capital market uncertainties and opportunities. The recommendation from this research is to build company agility to face market dynamic, partnership with fintech to accelerate technology innovation, and expand to ASEAN markets to enable sustainable growth. This research shows how scenario planning can provide the company a framework for developing more executable strategies for financial consulting companies working under high uncertainty conditions. Keywords: scenario planning, sustainable growth, business opportunity, strategic management. iii ABSTRAK PERENCANAAN SKENARIO PELUANG BISNIS BARU DI PT. GROWTH INVESTMENT Oleh Antony Student ID: 29323080 (Program Studi Magister Administrasi Bisnis) Penelitian ini mengeksplorasi penerapan perencanaan skenario sebagai alat strategis untuk menghadapi ketidakpastian dan kebutuhan PT. Growth Investment dalam bisnis pasar modal. Berdasarkan metodologi kualitatif, penelitian ini menggabungkan data primer dari wawancara pemangku kepentingan dengan sumber sekunder, sehingga memberikan perspektif yang komprehensif tentang faktor eksternal dan internal yang mempengaruhi lingkungan bisnis perusahaan. Kerangka kerja analisis PESTEL, SWOT, dan Porter’s Five Forces digunakan untuk mengidentifikasi kekuatan utama perubahan, termasuk inovasi teknologi, perubahan peraturan, dan tren pertumbuhan pasar. Untuk menggambarkan potensi masa depan pada berbagai tahap kemajuan teknologi dan perluasan pasar. Penelitian ini mengembangkan empat skenario, The Mighty Eagle, The Wise Owl, The Persistent Horse, dan The Slow Snail. Melalui kerangka kerja masing-masing scenario, strategi spesifik yang memengaruhi daya saing dan kelincahan PT. Growth Investment, seperti investasi teknologi, diversifikasi pasar, dan optimalisasi operasional. Selain itu, penelitian ini menawarkan system peringatan dini yang menyeluruh untuk melacak metrik penting dan memfasilitasi pengambilan Keputusan yang fleksibel. Temuan ini menunjukkan pentingnya strategi masa depan untuk menghadapi ketidakpastian dan peluang pasar modal. Rekomendasi dari penelitian ini adalah membangun ketangkasan Perusahaan untuk menghadapi dinamika pasar, bermitra dengan fintech untuk mempercepat inovasi teknologi, dan berekspansi ke pasar ASEAN untuk memungkinkan pertumbuhan berkelanjutan. Penelitian ini menunjukkan bagaimana perencanaan skenario dapat menyediakan kerangka kerja bagi perusahaan untuk mengembangkan strategi yang lebih dapat dieksekusi bagi perusahaan konsultan keuangan yang bekerja dalam kondisi ketidakpastian yang tinggi. Keywords: perencanaan skenario, pertumbuhan berkelanjutan, peluang bisnis, manajemen strategis. v FINAL PROJECT GUIDANCE Unpublished masters’ final project is registered and available in the Library of Bandung Institut of Technology, and is open for public, provided that the author owns the copyright in accordance with the intellectual property rights that are applicable in the Library of Institut Teknologi Bandung. Bibliographical references are allowed to be use in a limited manner, however the citation and summarization can only be proceed upon the author’s permission and must include the scientific norm of stating this final project as the source. This final project has to be cited as: Reproduction or publication of parts or whole of the final project must be under the consent of the Head of Graduate School, Bandung Institute of Technology. Antony. (2025): Scenario Planning for New Business Opportunity at PT. Growth Investment, Masters' Final Project, Institut Teknologi Bandung. DECLARATION OF NON-PLAGIARISM Plagiarism is considered as the act of dishonesty and a breach of academic ethics in which strongly against the School’s policy and regulation. I declare that materials presented in this Final Project are my own work and do not involve plagiarism. Should I do plagiarism in this Final Project, hereby I am willing to accept any consequences determined by the School. Date: 17 December 2024 Name: Antony Student ID: 29323080 Signed Plagiarism is: Plagiarism is presenting someone else’s work or ideas as your own, with or without their consent, by incorporating it into your work without full acknowledgement. All published and unpublished material, whether in manuscript, printed or electronic form, is covered under this definition. Plagiarism may be intentional or reckless, or unintentional. Under the regulations for examinations, intentional or reckless plagiarism is a disciplinary offence. (Oxford, 2019) SCENARIO PLANNING FOR NEW BUSINESS OPPORTUNITY AT PT. GROWTH INVESTMENT By: ANTONY NIM: 29323080 Master of Business Administration Program Business Leadership Approving, Counsellor Dated on 17 December 24 Prof. Yos Sunitiyoso S.T., M.Eng, Ph.D NIP: 197801192009121003 vi This final project is dedicated to parents, wife, children, brothers and sisters, and my beloved family and friends who always support me vii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The authors would like to thank SBM ITB lecturers, all members of the expert team who share a lot of insights and thoughts, and BLEMBA 34 colleagues who encourage each other to finish any academic projects. viii TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT............................................................................................................................................... i ABSTRAK................................................................................................................................................iii VALIDATION PAGE ................................................................................................................................ iv FINAL PROJECT GUIDANCE .................................................................................................................. v TABLE OF CONTENTS .......................................................................................................................... viii LIST OF FIGURES .................................................................................................................................. ix LIST OF TABLES ..................................................................................................................................... x Chapter I – Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 1 I.1. Background ..................................................................................................................................... 1 I.2. Company Profile .............................................................................................................................. 2 I.3. Business Issue ................................................................................................................................. 4 I.4. Research Questions and Research Objectives ..................................................................................... 7 I.5. Research Scope and Limitation & Brief Writing Structure ................................................................... 8 Chapter II – Literature Review .................................................................................................................... 9 II.1 Theoretical Foundations ................................................................................................................... 9 II.2 Conceptual Framework .................................................................................................................. 17 II.3. External Environment ................................................................................................................... 22 II.4. Internal Environment .................................................................................................................... 29 Chapter III – Research Methodology ......................................................................................................... 35 III.1. Research Design .......................................................................................................................... 35 III.2. Data Collection Method ............................................................................................................... 36 III.2.1. Interview Based Method (Primary Data Collection) ..................................................................... 37 III.2.2. Secondary Data Collection......................................................................................................... 39 III.3. Data Analysis Method .................................................................................................................. 42 III.3.1 Scenario Planning Analysis ......................................................................................................... 45 Chapter IV – Findings: Business Solutions ................................................................................................. 47 IV.1 Internal and External Analysis ....................................................................................................... 49 IV.1.1 Internal Analysis ........................................................................................................................ 49 IV.1.2 Contextual Environment – External Analysis ................................................................................ 52 IV.2. Data Analysis .............................................................................................................................. 70 IV.3. Solution and Scenario Planning Result ........................................................................................... 72 IV.4. Justification of Strategic Implementation ....................................................................................... 75 Chapter V – Conclusion and Recommendations ......................................................................................... 91 V.1. Conclusion ................................................................................................................................... 91 V.2. Recommendation .......................................................................................................................... 93 References .............................................................................................................................................. 99 ix LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. Rich Picture, PT. Growth Investment’s ecosystem .................................................................................. 4 Figure 2.