INTEGRATING SCENARIO PLANNING AND QUANTITATIVE DESCRIPTIVE ANALYSIS FOR SUSTAINABLE NICKEL MINING IN INDONESIA THESIS In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Management from Institut Teknologi Bandung By MUHAMMAD RIZKI AFLAHUL MUZHIDIN Student ID: 29022013 (Master Program of Science in Management) INSTITUT TEKNOLOGI BANDUNG JUNE 2024 i ABSTRACT INTEGRATING SCENARIO PLANNING AND QUANTITATIVE DESCRIPTIVE ANALYSIS FOR SUSTAINABLE NICKEL MINING IN INDONESIA By Muhammad Rizki Aflahul Muzhidin Student ID: 29022013 (Master Program of Science in Management) Nickel mining is a crucial industry in Indonesia, significantly contributing to the country's economy. However, it faces substantial sustainability challenges, including environmental degradation, social conflicts, and economic instability. This study employs a scenario planning approach to explore potential futures for sustainable nickel mining in Indonesia by integrating a systematic literature review (SLR), qualitative insights from expert interviews, and quantitative data from open- source datasets. This study identifies key driving forces such as environmental regulations, technological advancements, market demand, and social impacts. Detailed scenarios are developed to provide a comprehensive view of possible futures, emphasizing the need for strategic planning to balance economic growth with environmental and social responsibility. The findings offer valuable insights and practical recommendations for policymakers and industry stakeholders to promote sustainable practices in the Indonesian nickel mining sector. Keywords: Nickel Mining, Scenario Planning, Sustainable Mining, SLR , QDA ii ABSTRAK INTEGRASI DARI PERENCANAAN SKENARIO DAN ANALISIS DESKRIPTIF KUANTITATIF UNTUK PERTAMBANGAN NIKEL BERKELANJUTAN DI INDONESIA Oleh Muhammad Rizki Aflahul Muzhidin Student ID: 29022013 (Program Studi Magister Sains Manajemen) Pertambangan nikel merupakan industri yang penting di Indonesia, yang secara signifikan memberikan kontribusi bagi perekonomian negara. Namun demikian, industri ini menghadapi tantangan keberlanjutan yang cukup besar, termasuk degradasi lingkungan, konflik sosial, dan ketidakstabilan ekonomi. Studi ini menggunakan pendekatan perencanaan skenario untuk mengeksplorasi potensi masa depan pertambangan nikel yang berkelanjutan di Indonesia dengan mengintegrasikan tinjauan literatur sistematis (SLR), wawasan kualitatif dari wawancara para ahli, dan data kuantitatif dari kumpulan data sumber terbuka. Studi ini mengidentifikasi kekuatan pendorong utama seperti peraturan lingkungan hidup, kemajuan teknologi, permintaan pasar, dan dampak sosial. Skenario terperinci dikembangkan untuk memberikan pandangan komprehensif tentang kemungkinan masa depan, dengan menekankan perlunya perencanaan strategis untuk menyeimbangkan pertumbuhan ekonomi dengan tanggung jawab lingkungan dan sosial. Temuan- temuan ini menawarkan wawasan yang berharga dan rekomendasi praktis bagi para pembuat kebijakan dan pemangku kepentingan industri untuk mendorong praktik-praktik berkelanjutan di sektor pertambangan nikel Indonesia. Kata Kunci: Perencanaan Skenario, Penambangan Nikel, Pertambangan yang berkelanjutan, SLR, QDA iii iv INTEGRATING SCENARIO PLANNING AND QUANTITATIVE DESCRIPTIVE ANALYSIS FOR SUSTAINABLE NICKEL MINING IN INDONESIA HALAMAN PENGESAHAN By Muhammad Rizki Aflahul Muzhidin Student ID: 29022013 Master Program of Science in Management Institut Teknologi Bandung Approved … June 2024 Supervisor ______________________ (Dr. Yos Sunitiyoso) v vi THE GUIDANCE FOR USING THE THESIS Unpublished master’s thesis is registered and available in the Library of Bandung Institut of Technology and is open to the public, provided that the author owns the copyright in accordance with the intellectual property rights that are applicable in the Library of Institut Teknologi Bandung. Bibliographical references are allowed to be used in a limited manner. However, the citation and summarization can only proceed upon the author’s permission and must include the scientific norm of stating this thesis as the source. This thesis has to be cited as follows : Aflahul, M. (2024): Integrating Scenario Planning and Quantitative Descriptive Analysis for Sustainable Nickel Mining in Indonesia, Masters’ Thesis, Institut Teknologi Bandung. Reproduction or publication of parts or whole of the thesis must be under the consent of the Head of Graduate School, Bandung Institute of Technology. vii viii HALAMAN PERUNTUKAN This thesis is dedicated to my beloved family, who always support me. ix x STATEMENT OF AUTHORSHIP I hereby declare that I am the sole author of this thesis, and to the best of my knowledge and belief, the thesis contains no material previously published or written by another person except where due reference is made. I further declare that this thesis has yet to be previously submitted to obtain a degree at this or any other higher education institution. Muhammad Rizki Aflahul Muzhidin Bandung, 05 Juni 2024 xi ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I am deeply grateful to Allah SWT for His abundant mercy and grace, which enabled me to complete this thesis. The challenges I faced along the way would have been insurmountable without His infinite help. I also want to express my heartfelt appreciation to my wife and parents for their unwavering support throughout this journey. I would like to sincerely thank my exceptional supervisor, Dr. Yos Sunitiyoso, whose unwavering motivation and invaluable guidance were instrumental in helping me complete this work. I am also indebted to all the lecturers who generously shared their knowledge and expertise with me, without which this thesis would not have been possible. The administrative staff's unwavering assistance and support from start to finish are also greatly appreciated. Lastly, I would like to express my gratitude to my comrades who constantly supported and encouraged me. Their unwavering faith in me kept my spirits high and motivated me throughout this process. I cannot thank them enough..