109 V. CHAPTER V Conclusion and Recommendation V.1 Conclusion Based on the findings of this Final Project, several conclusions have been drawn to address the research questions. 1. In the next five years, the Indonesian gas industry's outlook will be influenced by various driving forces, including government policies, gas supply dynamics, infrastructure development, government regulations, environmental considerations, industry competition, societal factors, energy demand trends, pricing fluctuations, advancements in alternative energy sources, and evolving technologies. These factors will shape the sector's sustainability and profoundly impact Kangean Energy Indonesia (KEI) as a gas contractor. Excelling amidst these future challenges will require a strategic approach that addresses these key focal issues and leverages opportunities presented by the changing landscape of the natural gas business in Indonesia. The elaboration for each driving force is available in the sub-chapter IV.1.2 Stage 2: Exploration (page 68-80). 2. Based on the analysis from primary data gathering, the critical uncertainties that emerge as primary concerns for the Indonesian gas industry are related to the supply and infrastructure domains. Gas supply is a fundamental uncertainty, influenced by the maturity of existing gas reserves and the scattered potential reserves across different regions. This raises concerns about ensuring a sustainable and reliable gas supply, necessitating significant investments in technology and infrastructure. Infrastructure arises as another critical uncertainty, with challenges in establishing fully interconnected gas pipelines to optimize distribution across the country, especially in eastern and western Indonesia. Economic viability issues further complicate infrastructure development, particularly for LNG and CNG pipelines within the industry. The elaboration for the critical uncertainties is available in the IV.1.2 Stage 2: Exploration (page 80-81). 110 3. The potential scenarios for Indonesia's natural gas delivery business arise from the interplay of two critical uncertainties: gas supply and infrastructure development. These scenarios include: a. Scarce Gas Supply and Underdeveloped Infrastructure In the Chaos at the Crossroads scenario, KEI struggles to survive amidst a scarce gas supply and underdeveloped gas infrastructure. Declining reserves and limited exploration efforts contribute to the challenges, leading to technical obstacles and inadequate infrastructure. The uncertainty surrounding government policies and lack of support further deters investments in the gas industry, exacerbating the situation. To add to the industry's woes, alternative energy poses increased competition, and industry consolidation is rising. This scenario presents a challenging road ahead for the gas industry in Indonesia, casting uncertainties over its growth and stability and necessitating immediate attention and strategic planning to overcome the obstacles it faces. b. Scarce Gas Supply and Robust Infrastructure In the Pioneering Pathways scenario, Indonesia's gas industry faces a critical juncture, balancing declining gas reserves and limited exploration with the potential for comprehensive infrastructure development. Over the next five years, the industry must navigate these uncertainties while striving for sustainable growth and global influence. The scarcity of gas supply presents a significant challenge, driven by technical issues and depleting reserves, requiring innovative solutions to meet increasing energy demands. Ambiguity in government policies and incentives further complicates matters, hindering customer and investor attraction. However, the industry finds optimism in robust infrastructure development, acknowledging its crucial role in efficient gas distribution and competitiveness, which can transform the industry's landscape and unlock new opportunities. c. Ample Gas Supply and Underdeveloped Infrastructure The Gushing Opportunities scenario presents a crucial moment for Indonesia's gas industry, where abundant gas resources and supportive government policies offer extraordinary prospects.