SCENARIO PLANNING OF THE FUTURE ELECTRICITY UTILITY BUSINESS TOWARDS INDONESIA POWER SECTOR REFORM : CASE STUDY PT PLN (PERSERO) FINAL PROJECT By Rizki Aftarianto 29319437 MASTER OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION PROGRAM SCHOOL OF BUSINESS AND MANAGEMENT INSTITUT TEKNOLOGI BANDUNG 2021 i SCENARIO PLANNING OF THE FUTURE ELECTRICITY UTILITY BUSINESS TOWARDS INDONESIA POWER SECTOR REFORM: CASE STUDY PT PLN (PERSERO) Rizki Aftarianto NIM: 29319437 Date of Final Examination () Date of Graduation () Master of Business Administration Program Institut of Technology, 2021 Final Project Advisor: Yos Sunitiyoso, ST., M.Eng., Ph.D ABSTRACT Deregulation of Indonesian Power Sector started in 1992 when the first Independent Power Producer (IPP) entered the power market under Power Purchase Agreement (PPA). Global trend in the energy sector leads to an increasing portion of renewable energy instead of developing more non-renewable energy. Massive technology, decreasing business development, and deregulation of power sector regulation in Indonesia became factors of increasing private participants of renewable energy power generation, following the massive target of power generation mix from renewable energy 23% by 2025. Economic growth of Indonesia declined into recession in Q3 – 2020 after two consecutive negative growth since Q2 – 2020 amid COVID-19 pandemic. National electricity demand was decreasing following strict people movement to contain the spread of COVID-19. Central government need to re-calculate the electricity capacity planning and may decrease the potential energy transition into renewable as stipulated on the National Electricity Business Plan (RUPTL). To overcome the future uncertainties of growing electricity demand, massive deregulation of power sector, and renewable energy transition, a scenario planning framework will be elaborated on this paper to determine multiple scenarios that may happen in the future electricity utility business, as the basis future planning for an electricity utility company. Keywords: Electricity utility company; Power sector reform; Renewable energy transition; Scenario planning ii SCENARIO PLANNING OF THE FUTURE ELECTRICITY UTILITY BUSINESS TOWARDS INDONESIA POWER SECTOR REFORM: CASE STUDY PT PLN (PERSERO) Rizki Aftarianto NIM: 29319437 Date of Final Examination () Date of Graduation () Master of Business Administration Program Institut of Technology, 2021 Final Project Advisor: Yos Sunitiyoso, ST., M.Eng., Ph.D ABSTRAK Deregulasi sektor ketenagalistrikan di Indonesia dimulai pada tahun 1992, saat pembangkit listrik swasta pertama masuk ke pasar ketenagalistrikan menggunakan skema bisnis Power Purchase Agreement (PPA). Tren di sektor energi global mengarah kepada peningkatan porsi sumber energi terbarukan dibanding terus membangun sumber energi tidak terbarukan. Perkembangan teknologi, peningkatan pengembangan bisnis, dan deregulasi di sektor ketenagalistrikan di Indonesia menjadi factor penentu peningkatan partisipasi swasta di pembangkitan listrik menggunakan energi terbarukan, untuk mencapai target peningkatan porsi pembangkitan dari sumber energi terbarukan sebesar 23% pada tahun 2025. Pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia turun hingga masuk ke resesi pada triwulan 3 tahun 2020, setelah dua triwulan berturut-turut mengalami pertumbuhan negatif di tengah pandemi COVID-19. Kebutuhan tenaga listrik nasional menurun di tengah pembatasan pergerakan orang untuk mengatasi penyebaran virus COVID-19. Pemerintah Pusat harus melakukan perhitungan ulang terhadap perencanaan kapasitas ketenagalistrikan dan mungkin menurunkan rencana transisi energi menuju energi terbarukan sesuai yang tercantum pada dokumen RUPTL. Untuk mengatasi ketidakpastian masa depan dari pertumbuhan kebutuhan ketenagalistrikan, derasnya arus deregulasi sektor ketenagalistrikan, dan transisi energi menuju energi terbarukan, maka diperlukan perencanaan scenario yang akan dielaborasi pada penelitian ini untuk menentukan beberapa skenario yang mungkin terjadi di masa depan bisnis ketenagalistrikan di Indonesia, sebagai dasar perencanaan strategis dari suatu perusahaan utilitas ketenagalistrikan. Keywords: Electricity utility company; Power sector reform; Renewable energy transition; Scenario planning iii VALIDATION PAGE SCENARIO PLANNING OF THE FUTURE ELECTRICITY UTILITY BUSINESS TOWARDS INDONESIA POWER SECTOR REFORM: CASE STUDY PT PLN (PERSERO) By RIZKI AFTARIANTO NIM: 29319437 Master of Business Administration Program Business Leadership Executive Approving, Academic counselor Dated on __ August 2021 Yos Sunitiyoso, ST., M.Eng., Ph.D NIP: 197801192009121000 iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENT All praise and gratitude for Allah SWT’s presence for all His gifts so the author can complete the Final Project with title “Scenario Planning of the Future Electricity Business Towards Indonesia Power Sector Reform: Case Study PT PLN (Persero)”. The Final Project was elaborated and researched in completing the requirement of graduation from Business Leadership Executive in Master of Business Administration Program, Schoold of Business Management, Institute Teknologi Bandung. The research was completed to support the key decision making of the PLN corporate amid energy transition program and Indonesia Power Sector Reform to achieve the company vision in the near future. The author would like to extend his gratitude to all parties contributed to the completion of the Final Project. To Mr Yos Sunitoyoso, ST., M.Eng., Ph. D as the Final Project Supervisor for his excellence guidance and support. To PLN’s management and colleagues for the support and opportunities to develop the competence and ideas for better future of PLN. To all students of BLEMBA27 for the supportive class and togetherness. Especially to my family for endless support towards better future. The author realizes that there are still many things that need to be improved in this research and looking forward to any suggestions for the next research development. Hopefully the research result will be usefull to achieve better future of PLN. Surabaya, August 2021 Rizki Aftarianto v TABLE OF CONTENT S ABSTRACT .............................................................................................................................. i ABSTRAK ................................................................................................................................ ii VALIDATION PAGE ........................................................................................................... iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT .................................................................................................... iv TABLE OF CONTENTS ........................................................................................................ v LIST OF TABLES ................................................................................................................. vii LIST OF FIGURES ............................................................................................................. viii LIST OF APPENDICES ......................................................................................................... x CHAPTER 1 – INTRODUCTION .............................................................................. ......... 1 1.1. Background ........................................................................................... ......... 1 1.2. Company Profile ................................................................................... ......... 2 1.2.1. Company Overview ......................................................................... 2 1.2.2. Company Vision and Mission ......................................................... 4 1.2.3. Company’s Values ............................................................................ 5 1.2.4. Line of Business ................................................................................. 6 1.2.5.