SCENARIO-BASED POLICY FOR TOURISM BASED ON TOURISTS’ BEHAVIOUR INTENTION DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC: A SYSTEM DYNAMICS APPROACH THESIS In partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Management from Institut Teknologi Bandung By IMAS CHANDRA PRATIWI Student ID: 29020006 (Master Program of Science in Management) INSTITUT TEKNOLOGI BANDUNG 2022 Koleksi digital milik UPT Perpustakaan ITB : Hanya di pergunakan di area kampus ITB untuk keperluan pendidikan dan penelitian ABSTRACT SCENARIO-BASED POLICY FOR TOURISM BASED ON TOURISTS’ BEHAVIOUR INTENTION DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC: A SYSTEM DYNAMICS APPROACH By Imas Chandra Pratiwi 29020006 (Master Program of Science in Management) The emergence of COVID-19 at the end of 2019 and has been spread globally since 2020 affected global economic and socio-cultural. This leads the way of tourists to take a decision to travel has altered. As consequence, tourism industry became one of the most severely affected industries by the COVID-19 pandemic. Recent studies have discovered how tourists’ decision-making process during the pandemic. However, since the problems faced by the tourism industry to raise the number of tourists during COVID-19 are complex, analysing how system in environment interact to influence tourists’ intention amid the pandemic is very important. Thus, this study intended to develop scenario-based policies for tourism during COVID- 19 using system dynamics approach to assist tourism in raising the number of tourists during the pandemic. Statistical analysis with 534 respondents was done using extended TPB framework to identify tourists’ intention during COVID-19. This analysis found that tourists’ decision-making process is significantly influenced by attitude, perceived behavioural control, subjective norm, and perception of COVID-19. Further, causal loop diagram and stock and flow diagram were developed to identify the structure of tourists’ intention and generate scenario- based policy based on tourists’ intention structure. System dynamics result found there are seven scenario-based policies that can be implemented by tourism to raise more tourists amid the pandemic. Moreover, to raise the optimum number of tourists, tourism need to implement integrated policies that embrace the antecedent factors of tourists’ intention. Finally, the findings of present study contribute to the tourism and system dynamics body of knowledge and also provide scientific guidelines for tourism to enhance more tourists during the pandemic. Keywords: Tourism policy, tourists’ intention, theory of planned behaviour, system dynamics, COVID-19. Koleksi digital milik UPT Perpustakaan ITB : Hanya di pergunakan di area kampus ITB untuk keperluan pendidikan dan penelitian ABSTRAK KEBIJAKAN BERBASIS SKENARIO UNTUK PARIWISATA BERDASARKAN INTENSI PERILAKU WISATAWAN SELAMA PANDEMI COVID-19: PENDEKATAN DINAMIKA SISTEM Oleh Imas Chandra Pratiwi 29020006 (Program Studi Magister Sains Manajemen) Kemunculan COVID-19 pada akhir tahun 2019 dan telah menyebar secara global sejak 2020 memengaruhi perekonomian dan sosial budaya dunia. Hal ini menyebabkan cara wisatawan dalam mengambil keputusan untuk berwisata mengalami perubahan. Akibatnya, industri pariwisata menjadi salah satu industri yang paling terdampak oleh pandemi COVID-19. Studi terbaru menemukan bagaimana proses pengambilan keputusan wisatawan selama pandemi. Namun, karena masalah yang dihadapi industri pariwisata untuk meningkatkan jumlah wisatawan selama COVID-19 sangat kompleks, menganalisis bagaimana sistem di lingkungan berinteraksi untuk memengaruhi niat wisatawan di tengah pandemi menjadi sangat penting. Oleh karena itu, penelitian ini dimaksudkan untuk mengembangkan kebijakan pariwisata berbasis skenario selama COVID-19 dengan menggunakan pendekatan system dynamics untuk membantu pariwisata dalam meningkatkan jumlah wisatawan selama masa pandemi. Analisis statistik dengan 534 responden dilakukan dengan menggunakan kerangka TPB yang diperluas untuk mengidentifikasi niat wisatawan selama COVID-19.