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Investment Analysis of Revitalization Waterflood Project in ZULU Area

Investment Analysis of Revitalization Waterflood Project in ZULU Area

2017
Master Theses from JBPTITBPP / 2017-10-03 11:30:03
Oleh : ROMALEX DESAM 29115248, S2 - MBA-ITB
Dibuat : 2017-10-03, dengan 1 file

Keyword : PSC scheme, PSC scheme, Discounted Cash Flow Analysis, Sensitivity Analysis , Sensitivity Analysis
Subjek : Investment Analysis
Kepala Subjek : Investment Analysis
Nomor Panggil (DDC) : 332
Sumber pengambilan dokumen : Zuma Waterflood, ZULU Indonesia

Lapangan Zuma berlokasi di Area ZULU dan merupakan salah satu lapangan dalam batas wilayah konsesi yang diatur dalam Kontrak Bagi Hasil (PSC). Pada April 1973 produksi tertinggi mencapai 48,000 BOPD. 103 sumur telah dibor, dengan 70 sumur aktif (44 pada blok 3 dan 26 pada blok 1 dan 2). Persetujuan Plan of Future Development (POFD) Perusahaan dengan Pemerintah Indonesia tahun 2013 Proyek Zuma Waterflood berpotensi menstabilkan produksi minyak dalam periode PSC Blok Rokan. Namun Iklim harga minyak yang tidak bersahabat dan masa kerja PSC Blok Rokan berakhir pada Agustus 2021 Revitalisasi Proyek Zuma Waterflood menjadikan keharusan yang dilakukan Perusahan supaya program waterflood tetap berjalan dan tercapai kestabilan produksi minyak di lapangan Zuma.

Revitalisasi Proyek Zuma Waterflood direkomendasikan berdasarkan analisa investasi terbaik dari simulasi lima skenario menggunakan Metode Arus Kas Diskonto dan Uji Sensitifitas. Finansial indikator seperti seperti Net Present Value (NPV), Discounted Profitability Index (DPI), Internal Rate Return (IRR), dan Pay back Period (PBP) diaplikasikan pada skema kontrak bagi hasil dan kontrak bagi kotor (gross split). Skenario dengan nilai DPI > DPI hurdle rate Perusahan 1.2, revitalisasi Proyek Zuma Waterflood dapat dilanjutkan.


Prediksi harga minyak OPEC $107/bbl di tahun 2012-2013 Proyek ZUMA Waterflood skenario A investasi modal $120 MM, reserves minyak 7,9MMSTB, nilai keekonomian DPI = 1.36; NPV = USD 39,8MM; IRR=99.2%; serta Pay Back Period 1.22 tahun. Ditengah iklim harga minyak (OPEC) $ 50/bbl tahun 2015 membuat keekonomian proyek (skenario B) harus di-revitalisasi. Upaya inisiatif seperti optimisasi sumur pemboran optimisasi pengembangan fasilitas produksi menjadikan nilai investasi menjadi $72 MM. Skenario C, reserves minyak 6,39 MMSTB; NPV = USD 16,3MM, IRR 84,9%, Pay Back Period dalam 1,25 tahun dengan DPI 1,25. Skenario C- PSC extention 10 tahun reserves minyak 9,5 MMSTB; NPV = USD 33,1MM, IRR 68,77%, Pay Back Period dalam 1,68 tahun dengan DPI 1,50. Skenario C- Gross Split 10 tahun reserves minyak 9,5 MMSTB; NPV = USD 43,8MM, IRR 88,28%, Pay Back Period dalam 1,25 tahun dengan DPI 1,96.

Deskripsi Alternatif :

The Zuma Field is located in the ZULU Area and is one of the fields within the concession boundary in accordance Production Sharing Contract (PSC). Achieving peak production of 48,000 BOPD In April 1973.Total 103 wells have been drilled, with 70 active wells (44 on blocks 3 and 26 on blocks 1 and 2). Plan of Future Development (POFD) between Company and the Government of Indonesia agreed in 2013 as to develop a water injection strategy that will achieve maximize oil recovery within the remaining PSC period. The unfriendly trend of oil prices and remaining period of the Rokan Block PSC ended in August 2021, the Revitalization of the Waterflood Zuma Project made the Company's obligations to keep the waterflood program in place for the stability of oil production in the Zuma field.

Revitalization of Zuma Waterflood Project is recommended based on the best investment analysis from simulation of five scenarios using Discounted Cash Flow Method and Sensitivity Test. Financial indicators such as Discounted Profitability Index (DPI), Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate Return (IRR), and Pay back Period (PBP) are applied to the profit-sharing contract scheme and gross split contracts. Scenario with DPI above Company hurdle rate, which is 1.2, revitalization of Zuma Waterflood Project can be continued.

ZUMA Waterflood's initial investment value is USD 120MM (Scenario A) with oil price (OPEC) in 2015 is USD 107/bbl in 2012-2013 resulted oil reserve 7.9MMSTB, economic value DPI = 1.36; NPV = USD 39.8MM; IRR = 99.2%; And Pay Back Period 1.22 years. In 2015 oil prices sank to USD 50/bbl requires that the project (Scenario A) must be revitalized therefore project can continue and provide highest profitable. Initiative efforts such as drilling well optimization followed by optimization of the development of production facilities made the investment value to USD 72MM. Scenario C with oil reserves 6.39 MMSTB; gives NPV = USD 16,3MM, IRR 84,9%, Pay Back Period in 1,25 year and DPI 1,25. Scenario C- PSC extention 10 years with oil reserves 9.5 MMSTB; gives NPV = USD 33.1MM, IRR 68.77%, Pay Back Period in 1.68 years and DPI 1.50. Scenario C-Gross Split 10 year oil reserves 9.5 MMSTB; NPV = USD 43.8MM, IRR 88.28%, Pay Back Period in 1.25 years with DPI 1.96. Overall investment analysis recommend ZUMA Waterflood Project is good to run base on Alternatif C.

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  • Dr. Ir. Achmad Herlanto Anggono, MBA, Editor: Neng Kartika