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INDONESIAN DOMESTIC SEA FREIGHT MOVEMENT MODELLING BASED ON STRAMINDO DATA (2003)

the 10th Seminar of JSPS-DGHE Core University Program on Marine Transportation Engineering, Hiroshima, 6th December 2005
Gray literature from JBPTITBPP / 2007-02-14 18:47:33
Oleh : Rusmadi Suyuti, Department of Civil Engineering (rusmadisuyuti@yahoo.com)
Dibuat : 2005-12-06, dengan 1 file

Keyword :
Sea freight demand, Stramindo, modeling, estimation methods

Abstract:
The objective of the study is to obtain the most appropriate transport demand models which can likely represent the behavior of port-to-port domestic sea freight traffic movements in terms of O-D matrices. The model is developed for the purpose of forecasting the domestic sea freight demand using the current O-D pattern and the forecasted loading and unloading volume. The paper will report on a family of aggregate models containing a flexible Gravity-Opportunity (GO) model for modeling the trip making behavior in which standard forms of the and Intervening-Opportunity (IO) model can be obtained as special cases. Hence, the question of choice between gravity or intervening-opportunity approaches is decided empirically and statistically by restrictions on parameters which control the global functional form of the trip distribution mechanism. Non-Linear-Least-Squares (NLLS) and Maximum-Likelihood (ML) estimation methods were then used to calibrate the parameter of the model. The model has been tested using the total domestic sea freight movement in 2003 for 25 major ports in Indonesia. The models were found to provide a reasonably good fit and the calibrated parameters can then be used for forecasting purposes.

Deskripsi Alternatif :

Abstract:
The objective of the study is to obtain the most appropriate transport demand models which can likely represent the behavior of port-to-port domestic sea freight traffic movements in terms of O-D matrices. The model is developed for the purpose of forecasting the domestic sea freight demand using the current O-D pattern and the forecasted loading and unloading volume. The paper will report on a family of aggregate models containing a flexible Gravity-Opportunity (GO) model for modeling the trip making behavior in which standard forms of the and Intervening-Opportunity (IO) model can be obtained as special cases. Hence, the question of choice between gravity or intervening-opportunity approaches is decided empirically and statistically by restrictions on parameters which control the global functional form of the trip distribution mechanism. Non-Linear-Least-Squares (NLLS) and Maximum-Likelihood (ML) estimation methods were then used to calibrate the parameter of the model. The model has been tested using the total domestic sea freight movement in 2003 for 25 major ports in Indonesia. The models were found to provide a reasonably good fit and the calibrated parameters can then be used for forecasting purposes.

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PropertiNilai Properti
ID PublisherJBPTITBPP
OrganisasiD
Nama KontakUPT Perpustakaan ITB
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NegaraIndonesia
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  • 1st Author:
    Ofyar Z. Tamin

    3rd Author:
    Simson Sinaga

    Scan:
    Ena Sukmana (2005-12-23), Editor:

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